Tuesday, November 22, 2011

charts or fundamentals?

I loooove charts. I say, use them.

Fundamentals are cool, too, but such a chore!

I'm an impulsive type. I'm sticking with the charts.

But, can you actually find a good trade with charts? Isn't it all just an illusion? Doesn't it look like there are patterns, but actually they aren't meaningful?

What the actual truth is, I can't really say. I'm actually a failed investor, but I've stuck with it, reviewing hundreds of charts a year for 30 years, and I'm starting to feel I understand what's going on.

And it makes me mad that people are being told they can't make it in the stock market. What are they telling you? That you have to risk too much money? I'm telling you you only need to risk a little money. Are they telling you it's all a big scam and only crooks succeed in it? No! The stock market provides capital for all sorts of wonderful industry. Creating capital is incredibly productive. Your tiny investment creates millions of dollars worth of valuable goods. You are being rewarded for being smart with your investments: you chose really productive places to put your savings, which means more abundance for everybody. Finally, is it, as they say, impossible for you to do well? Are you just not smart enough to beat the market? (Nobody is, right? Except for a few, right?) Is doubling your money in a year way, way too much to expect? Well, I think you're smart enough. It's not that complicated. You just need some basic insight. Read on! And, is doubling your money a ridiculous thing to expect? Well, do some kind of survey of stock charts. Make a list of companies you know ... GE, Apple, Starbucks, etc. Look at a ten year chart for each company. How many of them, during some part of those ten years, didn't double?

Um, well, Apple, in the last 5 years (quickly found a chart) doubled in a year, then doubled again in two years. GE fell by 80%, but then doubled in a year. Starbucks fell by 80% but then doubled in a year and doubled again in two years.

Well, sure, these are famous companies, and they're famous for a reason. Buy my scanning course, and learn how to create lists of arbitrarily selected stocks - or just figure it out yourself. Look at each chart on a list, and see how many have doubled at some time in the past. How many have doubled several times. Bet you it's a lot of them.

Stocks double and quadruple and go up ten times with great regularity - not ephemeral whilothewisps but massively traded great companies. They also go down 50%, 75%, 90%, with great regularity. And they do that and then go back up with great regularity.

There's a truism in the markets - goes with the truism that you are safest expecting a modest return, and that you aren't smart enough to beat the markets - that timing the markets is dangerous. Wrong! Timing is everything. Buy my timing course next (but also buy my scans course).

No comments:

Post a Comment